Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Week 1 Wrap-up

This edition of the Weekly Wrap-up is brought to you in part by:

Week 1 is in the books and was it ever a crazy one. We’ll get to all the craziness in a minute, but first I want to take a moment to talk about strategery.

There’s a lot of strategery in fantasy football, from drafting your team to setting your line-ups each week. You’ve got to consider the match-ups, injuries, who’s hot, who’s not. It’s not just about the players themselves but who they’re playing with, who they’re playing against. You read articles written by experts, check out the projections, weekly rankings. There are hunches you get that tell you to sit your stars and play your sleepers. You gather as much information as you can and let your brain make the right decision.

And sometimes, you need to tell your brain to STFU.

There’s a little saying in fantasy football: “Start your studs.” Last week I made the decision to bench my top-5 (stud) Bears D/ST (who was playing a top offense) in favor of the Chiefs D/ST, who had a much favorable match-up against the shitty Bills. I looked over the facts, analyzed said match-ups, and made the decision with an amount of confidence that I am now embarrassed about. In the end the Bills came out with their best Patriots impression and kicked the crap out of the Chiefs, meanwhile the Bears put up 19 points against the Falcons who could barely score anything. Who’d-a-thunk? But “start your studs” isn’t always the best advice. In another example of my failures as a strategerist, I started my stud Vincent Jackson and sat Steve Smith. VJax scored a very meh 3.1, while Steve Smith...well you probably already know.

The point is, start your studs, but sometimes sit your studs. Yes, this is pretty unspecific (and thus crappy) advice, but what can I tell you? Sometimes the best move is the move you don't make. And sometimes not. There is only so much strategery that can come into play. The rest of it is just pure dumb luck.

And now to the week that was.

The exact moment when Martin's heart broke.
It started off very predictably. The Saints and the Packers duked it out, putting up monster scores. It looked like Brees and Rodgers would end up with top fantasy scores for the week, and rightfully so. It came down to the wire, with the Saints attempting to air-mail Mark Ingram into the endzone for the tying score (and promptly failing). But then Sunday rolled around and everything got....weird. The Steelers looked like the Bills, the Bills looked like the Colts, the Colts looked like a 3rd string peewee football team. And the result, several players came out of nowhere to put up monster points for their fantasy teams. Some of these performances were expected, others not. I’ve compiled a list of the happenings this week in order from the easiest to predict down to the “what-the-fuck” department:

1a. That my (champion) Pumaskulls would put up the lowest score of Week 1: I feel dirty even referring to them as “champion” after that stinker, but let’s face it, we all knew this was coming (at least I did).
1b. Tim Brady and Drew Brees would put up monster numbers: no surprises here.
The only passes going Ochocinco's way.
2. Chad Ochocinco would catch one pass for 14 yards while the two Patriot TEs scored a combined 30.9 points: turns out Tim Brady doesn’t really care for the old 85.
3. Ray Rice would justify his first overall pick status by beating up on the Steelers defense: As the previous Rice owner, and his first victim this season, I knew he was going to go big. But 26.9 points against (arguably) the best defense in football? Who knew he’d be that good? Looks like Justin did. Ray Ray scored more in the opener than he did in his first three games last season.
4. The Colts minus Peyton Manning are horrendous: you might be asking why this isn’t number 1. After all, anyone could have guessed that they would not be the same stellar offense with Kerry Collins behind the helm. But who knew that it would be that bad? Honestly, you did? Shut up, liar.
5. The top two scorers who weren’t QBs were WRs: The top RB of the week (Mike Tolbert) ranked #6 overall in points. He, of course, spent the week on the Shittysaurus’ bench, so all those lovely points pretty much amounted to rainbows and unicorn tears.
6. Out of the top 5 QBs for the week, only two of them were drafted as starters: the other three? Two went undrafted (Henne and Newton) and one was picked up in the 15th round (Fitzpatrick).
Week 1 MVP
7. The benches and free-agency would have so many top-scorers: If you look at the top 5 of each position (posted below), excluding kickers, out of 25 total players, 4 warmed the bench while 5 went undrafted. Out of the top 5 kickers, 3 of them went undrafted (but, being kickers, they don’t really count). [Side note: out of those 25 players, only three of them were first round picks.]
8. And perhaps the most unpredictable, out of the top 4 scorers overall, two of them were on the Panthers: one who went undrafted and one who sat on my bench like a rockstar. Who’d-a-thunk...

And now for the top scorers of Week 1:
Top 10 Players In-play
1. Tom Brady[QB] (NWA) - 35
2. Drew Brees[QB] (TGIF) - 29.1
3. Wes Welker[WR] (MEGA) - 28
4. Ray Rice[RB] (OCTO) - 26.9
5. 49ers D/ST (OCTO) - 26
6. LeSean McCoy[RB] (MEGA) - 25.7
7. Kenny Britt[WR] (TGIF) - 25.6
8. Aaron Rodgers[QB] (PHSH) - 24.6
9. Michael Vick[QB] (DMPS) - 23.2
10. Matthew Stafford[QB] (FLUF) - 22.2


Top 5 QBs
1. Tom Brady
(NWA) - 35
2. Chad Henne (FA) - 34.5
3. Cam Newton (FA) - 30.7
4. Drew Brees (TGIF) - 29.1
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ATOM) - 24.6

Top 5 RBs
1. Mike Tolbert
(SHSR) - 27.3
2. Ray Rice (OCTO) - 26.9
3. LeSean McCoy (MEGA) - 25.7
4. Matt Forte (PHSH) - 21.8
5. Cedric Benson (ATOM) - 18.3

Top 5 WRs
1. Steve Smith
(DMPS) - 29.8
2. Wes Welker (MEGA) - 28
3. Kenny Britt (TGIF) - 25.6
4. Calvin Johnson (SHSR) - 20.8
5. Reggie Wayne (FLUF) - 16.6

Top 5 TEs
1. Scott Chandler
(FA) - 18.3
2. Aaron Hernandez (NWA) - 16.3
3. Rob Gronkowski (SHSR) - 14.6
4. Jeff King (FA) - 12.1
4. Dustin Keller (MEGA) - 12.1

Top 5 D/STs
1. 49ers
(OCTO) - 26
2. Ravens (MF) - 21
3. Bears (DMPS) - 19
4. Texans (FA) - 18
5. Jets (ATOM) - 17

Top 5 Kickers
1. David Akers
(FA) - 15
2. Sebastian Janikowski (MF) - 13
2. Robbie Gould (FA) - 13
4. Josh Scobee (FA) - 12
5. Nick Folk (ATOM) - 11

Onwards to Week 2!

Now that Week 1 is over, it’s time to get the waiver war started. The waiver wire opens up tonight at midnight (I believe), so do your research and fill those holes (you whore). Remember to have multiple choices in case your first gets picked by me.

Match-up of the Week
This week’s MotW is not a hard choice. Giant Octopus and TGIF had the top two scores in Week 1, and are conveniently matched-up in Week 2. If anyone can be considered favorites so early in the season, it’s these two, yet one will have to go down in a blaze of glory. Who will it be?
 



Good luck in Week 2 (except for Andrew, you’re going down). Remember to keep up the trash talk!

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